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2016 Election by the Numbers

August 15, 2016 Leave a comment

Since the beginning of the 2016 US primary elections, I’ve been working on a chart showing the election numbers. I updated it in early August 2016 with all of the official results that were available at the time. Follow this link for the entire chart on Google Drive, or scroll through here on my blog (it’s easier to see in Google Drive).

 

 

At the end of July, Pew Research Center crunched some numbers and came up with an interactive web page to show where each candidate’s votes went, from March 2015 to June 2016. I’ve tried to crunch the numbers even further to estimate the votes at the general election in November, but it’s been a difficult challenge, with so many candidates this year, and so many variables to contend with. For instance, some candidates dropped out very shortly after the first primary was held in Iowa on February 1, 2016, yet their names still appeared on many ballots, or their names were written in, so they still received votes. Also, 2 states didn’t report popular vote totals, making this even more difficult. Of course, this is politics, and things change on a dime here in the US. It’s all just a guessing game until November 9th, and even then we might not know the results (anyone remember Bush?).

 

Pew Democrats Pew Republicans


Republican – December through April

Let’s get the more difficult party out of the way first. Republicans started out with well over a dozen candidates in 2015.  Only the top 11 were given a spot on the PRC chart, and out of those, only 4 were serious contenders. In the “other” column on my main chart, I’ve included all votes that weren’t for the top 4. On the 2nd and 3rd sheets of my chart, I’ve broken down the votes of the 10 top contenders.  Since Walker dropped out before the first primary vote was cast, I’m not going to include him in any official totals except the overall “other” votes (some people wrote his name in), even though he was included on the PRC chart.

There appears to be a huge discrepancy between the December 2015 survey and the actual numbers at the polls, but that’s more a matter of timing than anything else. To understand what I’m talking about, there were 31,168,591 votes cast for all Republicans during the primaries (more, if we could get the actual votes from the 2 states that didn’t release totals). If a candidate was shown to have 1% of the vote in December, he or she should have seen roughly 300,000 actual votes. Most of the candidates didn’t even see ¼ of that. Part of the reason for that is because the survey was done in December, yet the first vote wasn’t cast until February, and another part of the reason is because the candidates dropped out very early in the race.

We’ll start with the December 2015 PRC survey.  I’ll list the candidates in the order they dropped out of the race, the percentage of votes they had at each point, the actual numbers they had at the polls, and where their votes went according to the April 2016 PRC survey. For some, the numbers were too small for the PRC to accurately estimate the percentage that went to other candidates, so I’ve tried to eyeball it as best as I can. Almost all candidates continued to get votes even after they dropped out, presumably because their name was still on the ballot (too late to amend them?) and people were either unaware that they’d dropped out, or were just loyal to them, regardless.

Huckabee dropped out on February 1st. PRC said he had 1% of the vote in December. From December through April, he received 49,658 votes. Eyeballing the PRC chart, his votes went in 6 directions, with Trump receiving a slightly higher percentage than the others. So let’s say that Trump got 20% (9,931), leaving each of the remaining 5 candidates 16% (7,946). Paul’s votes were split between 5 other candidates and himself, with what looks to be 20% going 4 ways, and 10% going 2 ways. Christie’s votes went 7 directions, including himself, with Trump getting the lion’s share (25%) , and Kasich getting a tiny bit more (15%) than the remaining 5 (12%). Fiorina’s votes were split 7 ways, including herself, with Kasich (16%) getting a tiny bit more than the others (14%). Bush’s votes went 7 ways, including himself, with Cruz (20%) and Kasich (18%) in the lead, followed by Trump (16%), Undecided (13%), Bush (13%) retaining votes, Other (10%) and Rubio (10%) bringing up the rear. Carson’s votes were split 9 ways, including himself, with all the percentages given on the PRC chart (Rubio and Paul had 1%, Fiorina had <1%, which left her with only 3 votes, so I reduced theirs to .9% each and gave her .2%). Rubio’s votes were split 8 ways, including himself, with all the percentages given on the PRC chart.


Huckabee – 2/1 – 1% – 49,658 > Trump 9,931 – Cruz 7,945 – Kasich 7,945 – Rubio 7,945 – Other 7,946 – Undecided 7,946

Paul – 2/3 – 2% – 60,689 > Trump 12,137 – Cruz 12,137 – Kasich 6,068 – Other 6,073 – Undecided 12,137  – Paul 12,137
Christie – 2/10 – 2% – 55,386 > Trump 13,847 – Cruz 6,646 – Kasich 8,308 – Bush 6,646 – Other 6,646 – Undecided 6,647 – Christie 6,646
Fiorina – 2/10 – 1% – 37,017 > Trump 5,182 – Cruz 5,182 – Kasich 5,925 – Rubio 5,182 – Other 5,182 – Undecided 5,182 – Fiorina 5,182
Bush – 2/20 – 4% – 271,283 > Trump 43,405 – Cruz 54,256 – Kasich 48,830 – Rubio 27,128 – Other 27,126 – Undecided 35,269 – Bush 35,269
Carson – 3/4 – 10% – 723,775 > Trump 253,321 – Cruz 246,083 – Kasich 79,615 – Rubio 6,514 – Paul 6,514 – Fiorina 1,449 – Other 21,714 – Undecided 65,139 – Carson 43,426
Rubio – 3/15 – 10% – 3,515,648 > Trump 738,286 – Cruz 914,068 – Kasich 1,019,537 – Carson 17,578 – Paul 17,578 – Other 246,099 – Undecided 140,625 – Rubio 421,877

 

Trump, Cruz, and Kasich also had some votes shift between December and April, which will affect the final calculations. No dates, as they hadn’t dropped out at this point. Kasich’s votes were split 5 ways, with himself retaining about 40% of the votes, and the others each getting 15%. For Trump’s split, I had to divide the best I could between Kasich (1.5%), Rubio (.4%) and Paul (.1%). All other information comes from the PRC chart.


Cruz – 14% – 6,914,585 > Trump 1,313,772 – Kasich 553,167 – Rubio 69,146 – Carson 138,292 – Paul 34,572 – Fiorina 34,572 – Other 207,437 – Undecided 345,729 – Cruz 4,217,898

Kasich – 1% – 3,705,077 > Trump 555,761 – Cruz – 555,761 – Other 555,761 – Undecided 555,761 – Kasich 1,482,033
Trump – 34% – 10,184,988 > Cruz 1,018,498 – Kasich 152,775 – Rubio 40,740 – Paul 10,184 – Other 305,550 – Undecided 712,950 – Trump 7,944,291

 

Our December through April totals are as follows:

Trump – 10,889,933
Kasich – 3,364,203
Cruz – 7,038,474
Rubio – 578,532
Carson – 199,296
Bush – 41,915
Fiorina – 41,203
Christie – 6,646
Paul – 80,985
Undecided – 1,887,385
Other – 1,521,290 (Other 1,389,037 + other candidates not listed 131,756)
Grand total  of Repbulican votes Dec – Apr – 25,649,862


Democrat – December through April

Using the same formula for the Democrats for the same time period, excluding Biden and Warren altogether, since they weren’t officially part of the race after December 2015. I’ll only be using Clinton, Sanders and O’Malley’s totals. That should make things a lot easier! O’Malley was the only one to drop out during this time-frame, also after the first day of primaries. His votes were split 5 ways, including himself, so an easy 20% split, with Biden’s share going to Other.  Sanders and Clinton also had a vote shift.  All information from the PRC chart, with percentages, noted in parenthesis.


O’Malley – 2/1 – 1% – 101,751 > Clinton 20,350 – Sanders 20,350 – Undecided 20,350 – Other 20,350 – O”Malley 20,351
Sanders – 29% – 9,761,077 > Clinton 1,561,772 – Undecided 683,275 – Other (1.7%) 165,939 – O’Malley (.3%) 29,284 – Sanders 7,320,807
Clinton – 48% – 12,985,404 > Sanders 2,467,226 – Undecided 1,038,832 – Other (2.5%) 324,636 – O’Malley (.5%) 64,928 – Clinton 9,089,782

 

Again, using the same formula as above for the Republicans, our totals for Democrats are:

Clinton – 10,671,904
Sanders – 9,808,383
O’Malley – 114,563
Total Undecided – 1,742,457
Other – 762,675 (Other 510,925  + other candidates not listed 251,750)
Grand total of Democrat votes Dec – Apr – 23,099,982


Republican – May through June

That brings us to the next set of totals – May through June. Again, the same formulas were used, except for Huckabee with <1% of the vote in April, who didn’t show a vote shift on the PRC chart, and had 1,780 votes. His votes will be included in with the “others” in the grand total.  We’re also adding a new column – Neither – which should make things more interesting.


Paul – 2/3 – 1% – 6,104 > Trump (50%) 3,052 – Clinton (25%) 1,526 – Neither (25%) 1,526
Christie – 2/10 – <1% – 2,465 > Trump (100%) 2,465
Fiorina – 2/10 – <1% – 3,661 > Trump (100%) 3,661
Bush – 2/20 – 1% – 15,618 > Trump (67%) 10,464 – Neither (33%) 5,154
Carson – 3/4 – 1% – 133,289 > Trump (90%) 119,960 – Clinton (10%) 13,329
Rubio – 3/15 – 2% – 20,508 > Trump (90%) 18,458 – Clinton (5%) 1,025 – Neither (5%) 1,025
Cruz – 5/3 – 23% – 871,528 > Trump (87%) 758,230 – Clinton (10%) 87,153 – Neither (3%) 26,145
Kasich – 5/4- 10% – 583,155 > Trump (78%) 454,861 – Clinton (20%) 116,631 – Neither (2%) 11,663
Trump – 44% – 3,843,846 > Trump (96%) 3,690,092 – Clinton (3.9%) 149,910 – Neither (.1%) 3,844

Grand total of Republican votes May – Jun – 5,518,729 (votes above (5,480,174) + other candidates not listed (36,775) + Huckabee’s (1,780) votes)


Democrat – May through June

O’Malley – 2/1 – <1% – 9,509 > Clinton (100%) 9,509
Sanders – July – 37% – 3,985,988 > Clinton (90%) 3,587,389 – Trump (9%) 358,739 – Neither (1%) 39,860
Clinton – 46% – 4,497,412 > Clinton (95%) 4,272,542 – Trump (4%) 179,896 – Neither (1%) 44,974

Grand total of Democrat votes May – Jun – 8,611,203 (votes above (8,492,909) + other candidates not listed (118,294) )


Combined Republican and Democrat – December through June

This is where things get interesting. I’ll be combining each candidate’s totals from the first part (Dec – Apr) and the second part (May – Jun), showing their vote shifts as a combined total.

Paul – 87,089 > Trump (50%) 43,545 – Clinton (25%) 21,772 – Neither (25%) 21,772
Christie – 9,111 > Trump (100%) 9,111
Fiorina – 44,864 > Trump (100%) 44,864
Bush – 57,533 > Trump (67%) 38,547 – Neither (33%) 18,986
Carson – 332,585 > Trump (90%) 299,326 – Clinton (10%) 33,259

Rubio – 599,040 > Trump (90%) 539,136 – Clinton (5%) 29,952 – Neither (5%) 29,952
Cruz – 7,910,002 > Trump (87%) 6,881,703 – Clinton (10%) 791,000 – Neither (3%) 237,299
Kasich – 3,947,358 > Trump (78%) 3,078,940 – Clinton (20%) 789,471 – Neither (2%) 78,947
Trump – 14,733,779 > Trump (96%) 14,144,428 – Clinton (3.9%) 574,618 – Neither (.1%) 14,733

O’Malley – 124,072 > Clinton (100%) 124,072
Sanders – 13,794,371 > Clinton (90%) 12,414,934 – Trump (9%) 1,241,494 – Neither (1%) 137,943
Clinton – 15,169,316 > Clinton (95%) 14,410,851 – Trump (4%) 606,772 – Neither (1%) 151,693

Now we’ll add to it the Other and Undecided votes from both parties and their respective segments above, and their vote shifts according to the PRC chart.

Other Republican – 4% – 1,559,845 > Trump (76%) 1,185,482 – Clinton (19%) 296,371 – Neither (5%) 77,992
Undecided Republican – 14% – 1,887,385 > Trump (68%) 1,283,421 – Clinton (15%) 283,107 – Neither (17%) 320,855

Other Democrat – 2% – 880,969 > Clinton (80%) 704,775 – Trump (10%) 88,097 – Neither (10%) 88,097
Undecided Democrat – 14% – 1,742,457 > Clinton (73%) 1,271,994 – Trump (18%) 313,642 – Neither (9%) 156,821

Now it’s time to add them all up and see what we get.

Trump – 29,798,508 – 47.39%
Clinton – 31,746,176 – 50.49 %
Neither – 1,335,090 – 2.12%
Grand total combined votes – 62,879,774


In conclusion …

So there we have it, folks. Of course, this isn’t the end of the story. There are still almost 3 months until the general election on November 7, 2016. A lot could change between now and then. Hell, a lot could change between now and next week. I’m anxious to see if the Pew Research Center does another poll between now and the election, and if they do, I’ll update these numbers with their polls.

Of course, this says nothing of how the Electoral College will vote, either. This could be another squeaker, or we could end up with SCOTUS deciding the election, which would be pretty interesting considering we’re down a member.

 

* All sources included either in links here or on my chart on Google Drive. I’ve quadruple checked my math at each calculation. While my math may be flawless, my logic might be a little off. I’m open to any constructive criticism of the work I’ve done here. It’s taken me months to compile all of this information in a way that was easy to read and understand. *
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